Saturday, January 10, 2009

Polls: Who Knows?

I've been saying how clueless and bumbling Iggy has been coming across since he took the helm. Maybe I jinxed it. Apparantly the Canadian public have been more generous in their assesment. A Nanos Poll has the Liberals and Conservatives in a virtual tie. (Here)

They have both at about 33%.

We'll see. I was in corporate communications for a while and we used polling companies. I think the margin of error is a lot more than they state. And I'm not even sure what they state here:

Between January 3rd and January 7th, 2009,Nanos Research conducted a randomtelephone survey of 1,003 Canadians 18 years and older. A random telephone survey of 1,003 Canadians is accurate plus or minus 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. Margins of accuracy are wider for subgroup samples. Readers should note that the data was weighted for gender and age to match the Canadian census results. Results should be considered representative of the Canadian population.
Results may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Call me a peasant, but that sounds like trickery.

1 comment:

  1. Meh... Iggy's probably enjoying a honeymoon period with the electorate and it certainly doesn't hurt that the polling took place right after the holidays and new years. I'm sure people are more generous and feeling pleasantly plump. As Kinsella says, this isn't a sprint, it's a marathon.

    Until Canadians witness this guy in action and have something concrete (a platform or policy book perhaps) to judge him on I imagine the polls will be somewhat friendly with the guy because relative to Dion he probably is an improvement or at least most will think so.

    I tend to think many Libs who were sitting silent and dejected on the sidelines have come out swinging for Iggy and this has reflected itself in positive editorials and op-ed pieces. This could also partially explain the uptick in support.

    I believe the break down of the poll notes a large upswing of support in Quebec. Iggy is popular in Quebec and that alone should have the Tories concerned. The West will vote Harper. I believe he will retain most if not all the support he has in Ontario but Quebec could be the difference maker and give Iggy a minority. This is probably why Kinsella's so ****ing cocky. Interal Lib. polls are probably showing very promising data with Iggy at the helm.